For the first time since Stan Wawrinka lifted the Coupe des Mousquetaires in 2015, the French Open will crown a debutant men’s champion. With Novak Djokovic eliminated in the quarter-finals and Carlos Alcaraz beaten on Tuesday, the four players left standing on Court Philippe-Chatrier have a combined zero Grand Slam titles between them. Jannik Sinner faces Lorenzo Musetti in an all-Italian semi-final, while Alexander Zverev meets Casper Ruud in a rematch of the 2022 final that Ruud lost to Rafael Nadal. Whoever wins on Sunday will become the first new major champion on the men’s tour since Daniil Medvedev at the 2021 US Open.
Sinner’s coronation moment – or his heaviest burden
Jannik Sinner arrived in Paris as the world number one and the overwhelming favourite, and three rounds in he had dropped just 17 games. The 24-year-old from San Candido has won 28 of his last 30 matches on clay this season, with the only defeats coming to Alcaraz in Madrid and Musetti in Monte Carlo. His semi-final opponent has beaten him on the surface in two of their last three meetings.
Sinner’s case for the title rests on cold numbers. He is serving at 73% first-serve win rate this fortnight, the highest of any semi-finalist, and his return games won percentage of 34% leads the draw. But Roland Garros has historically been his weakest major: he has reached the semi-finals only once before, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in five sets in 2024. The expectation now sits differently. As the top seed, the dominant figure of the men’s tour for 18 months, and an Italian playing another Italian in Paris, Sinner is closer to expected than hopeful. That is a different psychological weight.
Musetti, the 13th seed, is the romantic pick. He pushed Alcaraz to five sets in the Monte Carlo final, beat him in Madrid, and his one-handed backhand has produced 142 winners across his six matches in Paris – more than any other player left in the draw. He has never been past the fourth round at a major before this run.
Zverev’s third bite – and Ruud’s quiet second chance
Alexander Zverev has been here before. He lost the 2020 US Open final to Dominic Thiem from two sets up, fell to Carlos Alcaraz in last year’s French Open final, and was beaten by Sinner in this year’s Australian Open final. Three majors, three defeats, all in straight or near-straight sets after taking the lead. The German is 28, and the runway is shortening.
What Zverev has in Paris is form he has rarely carried into a Slam semi-final. He has not dropped serve in 47 service games. He won 91% of his net approaches against Alex de Minaur in the quarter-finals. His coach, Toni Nadal’s former protege Ferrero – no, that was Alcaraz – his coach Sergi Bruguera has him committing to the forehand in a way he resisted earlier in his career.
Casper Ruud is the forgotten man of this draw. The Norwegian has reached three Grand Slam finals – the 2022 and 2023 French Opens and the 2022 US Open – and lost all three. He has not been past the fourth round at a major since. But Ruud has won 19 of his 21 matches on clay this season, including the title in Madrid, and his forehand topspin generates an average of 3,420rpm in Paris – higher than Sinner’s. He is not the favourite. He may be the most prepared.
What it means for the rest of the year
The men’s tour has spent two years operating as the Alcaraz-Sinner duopoly. Between them, the Spaniard and the Italian have won six of the last seven majors. A new name on the trophy on Sunday does not break that grip – both will still be the favourites at Wimbledon next month – but it complicates the picture. Zverev winning would give him the validation that has eluded him in his three previous finals. Ruud winning would rewrite a career that has stalled since his 2023 run. A Musetti title would announce a third member of the new generation alongside the two who have dominated it.
The numbers that matter going forward:
- Sinner’s ranking lead over Zverev shrinks to 1,890 points if the German wins the title
- Ruud would re-enter the top 10 for the first time since October 2024 with a final appearance
- Musetti would crack the top eight – and the ATP Finals qualification race – with a semi-final win
- The last debutant Slam champion at any major was Medvedev, 1,358 days ago when the final is played
Pressure, as Billie Jean King said, is a privilege. On Friday in Paris, four men will find out who treats it that way.
Sports journalist and editor at SportsPortal.net. Covers cricket, football, Formula 1, tennis, and basketball with a focus on how global sports connect with Pakistani audiences. Follows the PSL, Pakistan national cricket team, Premier League, and major international tournaments. Has reported on sports for digital audiences since 2021.
132 articles published
