750 words, all facts verified against Al Jazeera, amNY, ESPN, WTA/tennis365 and the published draw.
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The last time Aryna Sabalenka left Arthur Ashe Stadium she was holding a trophy, having beaten Amanda Anisimova for a fourth Grand Slam title and a second successive US Open. Twelve months on, the Belarusian returns to Flushing Meadows defending 2,000 ranking points, leading Elena Rybakina by just 354 in the live race for world No 1, and carrying summer form that reads: fourth round in Toronto, fourth round in Cincinnati.
The 2026 US Open main draw runs from 30 August to 13 September, with a record $108m purse and $5.5m for each singles champion. It begins without the world No 1 in the men’s game — Jannik Sinner withdrew with a right knee injury sustained after winning Wimbledon — and with a defending champion, Carlos Alcaraz, who has not played a competitive singles match since April.
Sabalenka’s 354-point tightrope
Sabalenka has reached at least the semi-finals in each of the last five US Opens and the final of the last seven hard-court majors she has contested. That record is the argument for her. The argument against is 2026: beaten by Rybakina in the Australian Open final, out in the Roland Garros quarter-finals to Diana Shnaider, and gone in the fourth round of both North American Masters events, the Cincinnati exit coming against Sara Bejlek from a 4-1 lead in the second set.
She has been unwilling to unpack it. “It wasn’t the best period,” she said. “I don’t want to defend myself, but obviously I just don’t want to talk about that period. I’ve been dealing with several things, but who cares, right?”
The draw has not been kind. She opens against Camila Osorio, a former US Open junior champion who has beaten her before, and the projected route runs through Barbora Krejcikova in round three and a possible fourth-round rematch with Shnaider. Linda Noskova, the 21-year-old who beat Karolina Muchova to win Wimbledon in July, is the seed waiting in her quarter; Jessica Pegula, whom Sabalenka leads 9-4, is the projected semi-final.
The ranking maths is unforgiving because only Sabalenka is defending a title:
- Rybakina takes top spot for the first time simply by reaching the semi-finals.
- Reaching the final still costs Sabalenka 700 points; a semi-final costs 1,220.
- Coco Gauff needs the title and needs Rybakina out before the last four.
- Pegula, third in the live race on 6,680 points, is playing at home.
Alcaraz returns without a rehearsal
Alcaraz beat Sinner in four sets in last year’s final and has not been seen in singles since a right wrist injury cost him Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Four months out, and his comeback match is a Grand Slam first round against Roman Safiullin.
“You’re going to see Carlitos playing the way he always has,” he said this week, insisting he has changed nothing about his mechanics. That confidence will be tested quickly: no man has won back-to-back US Open titles since Roger Federer in 2007 and 2008, and 11 different men have won the title since 2009, making New York the least predictable of the four majors.
Alexander Zverev, the Roland Garros champion and Wimbledon runner-up, is the top seed in Sinner’s absence. Ben Shelton sits in Alcaraz’s quarter and Taylor Fritz in Felix Auger-Aliassime’s, with the American men still waiting for a home champion since Andy Roddick in 2003.
Djokovic and the number 25
Novak Djokovic turned 39 in May and has not won a major since this tournament in 2023. A 25th would move him one clear of Margaret Court and alone at the top of the all-time singles list, men’s or women’s. He begins against the 48th-ranked Mariano Navone.
The preparation was alarming. He collapsed in the Cincinnati heat, describing a health issue worsened by the humidity, then lost in three sets to the 50th-ranked Argentine Thiago Tirante having won the opening one. He cut a practice session short in the days before the draw.
The context that matters most, though, is who is left in his path. Eight of Djokovic’s last 11 Grand Slam exits have come against Alcaraz or Sinner. Sinner is not here. Alcaraz is in the same half, which means the pair are projected to meet in the semi-finals — Djokovic’s shortest route to 25 runs through a man with match rust and a repaired wrist.
For Sabalenka, the equation is simpler and harsher. Win seven matches and everything holds. Anything less and the No 1 ranking she has held for eight consecutive Grand Slams changes hands in New York.
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One note on sourcing: reports disagreed on Djokovic’s exact seed number (fourth vs sixth), so I left it out rather than pick one. Saved at `/tmp/sp/usopen2026.html`.
Sources: [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2026/8/28/us-open-2026-all-to-know-about-the-schedule-top-seeds-and-favourites), [amNewYork](https://www.amny.com/sports/us-open-preview-2026-djokovic-sabalenka/), [Bleacher Report](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25493241-us-open-tennis-draw-2026-novak-djokovic-carlos-alcaraz-full-brackets-revealed), [WTA](https://www.wtatennis.com/news/4566428/breaking-down-the-no-1-ranking-how-rybakina-gauff-and-pegula-can-overtake-sabalenka), [Yardbarker](https://www.yardbarker.com/tennis/articles/the_us_open_draw_has_created_a_huge_problem_for_aryna_sabalenka_and_a_familiar_threat_is_waiting/s1_17460_44232757), [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/49332915/wimbledon-2026-today-blog-11-07-2026-live-updates-news-score-results-karolina-muchova-linda-noskova-all-czech-women-final-july-11), [Washington Times](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/29/novak-djokovic-hopes-losing-early-cincinnati-prepared-us-open/)
Sports journalist and editor at SportsPortal.net. Covers cricket, football, Formula 1, tennis, and basketball with a focus on how global sports connect with Pakistani audiences. Follows the PSL, Pakistan national cricket team, Premier League, and major international tournaments. Has reported on sports for digital audiences since 2021.
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