Belgium have one point from two matches. The team ranked among the favourites before a ball was kicked at World Cup 2026 sit bottom of their group, and unless results break their way on the final matchday, a side featuring Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku could be flying home before the knockout rounds begin. BBC Sport columnist Chris Sutton has run his eye over the closing round of group fixtures, and he is not convinced the Red Devils will escape.
“Belgium have been disjointed, slow in transition and reliant on individuals to dig them out,” Sutton said. “When you’ve drawn one and lost one, you can’t keep waiting for someone to produce a moment. They need a win and they need other results, and I’m not sure they’ll get either.”
Belgium’s fate hangs in the balance
Sutton predicts a 2-1 defeat for Belgium against a well-organised opponent that needs only a point to advance, leaving Roberto Martínez’s successor staring at elimination. The expansion to 48 teams at this World Cup means four of the six third-placed sides also qualify, which keeps a sliver of hope alive even for those who lose. But Belgium’s goal difference, dented by a heavy result earlier in the tournament, leaves them vulnerable in any tie-breaker.
“The format gives you a safety net, but Belgium have already used theirs up,” Sutton said. “If they finish third, the goal difference is what kills them. They’ve conceded sloppy goals and they haven’t scored enough to balance it out. This is a generation that promised a great deal and may leave another tournament with regrets.”
It would be a sobering exit for a country that reached the semi-finals in 2018 and was ranked number one in the world for long stretches of the following years. The so-called golden generation has now spanned three World Cups without a final, and this campaign was billed as a last chance for several senior figures.
The other final-day verdicts
Elsewhere, Sutton expects the established powers to take care of business. He has England down for a 2-0 win that would secure top spot and a kinder route through the bracket, with the front line finally clicking after two cautious displays.
- England 2-0 — “Tuchel’s side have been controlled rather than thrilling, but they’ll have enough to win the group.”
- France 3-1 — “Kylian Mbappé has looked sharp and France have the firepower to ease through, even against a side fighting for a place.”
- Brazil 1-1 — “Already qualified, I think they rotate and settle for a draw. That’s not complacency, it’s management.”
- Argentina 2-0 — “The holders look like the holders. Lionel Messi or not from the start, they have too much quality.”
- Spain 2-1 — “A tougher night than the scoreline suggests, but Spain’s midfield will win the key moments.”
Sutton was less certain about the group containing two sides level on four points. “That’s a genuine shootout,” he said. “I’ll go for a draw that sends both through and breaks a few hearts on the bench, but it could swing either way in the final ten minutes.”
What the final round means going forward
The closing group games do more than settle who advances. They shape the entire knockout bracket, and a single result can be the difference between a quarter-final against a wounded giant or an in-form outsider. Topping a group has rarely mattered more, because the expanded field has produced a draw in which second place can mean an earlier meeting with one of the tournament favourites.
“Every manager is doing the maths,” Sutton said. “Do you push for the win and risk an injury or a suspension, or do you manage the game and accept a route you can live with? The best sides win the group and worry about the rest later. The ones who start calculating too early tend to come unstuck.”
For Belgium, the calculations may already be academic. A team that arrived with semi-final ambitions could be reduced to hoping a third-place finish and a favourable set of results elsewhere keeps them in North America for another week. Sutton’s verdict is blunt: on current form, the Red Devils are heading out, and the post-mortem on a glittering but unfulfilled era will begin in earnest.
Sports journalist and editor at SportsPortal.net. Covers cricket, football, Formula 1, tennis, and basketball with a focus on how global sports connect with Pakistani audiences. Follows the PSL, Pakistan national cricket team, Premier League, and major international tournaments. Has reported on sports for digital audiences since 2021.
290 articles published
