With 48 teams, 16 host cities across the United States, Canada and Mexico, and a 104-match schedule that begins on 11 June and ends in the MetLife Stadium final on 19 July, the 2026 World Cup is the largest in the tournament’s 96-year history. BBC Sport’s panel — Alan Shearer, Micah Richards, Chris Sutton, Rachel Brown-Finnis and Stephen Warnock — were asked the same four questions: who lifts the trophy, who springs the surprise, how far do England go, and what becomes of Scotland on their first World Cup appearance since 1998?
The favourites: France, Spain and Argentina dominate the picks
Three names recur. France, beaten finalists in Qatar four years ago, drew the most votes. Shearer and Warnock both went for Didier Deschamps’s side, citing the spine of Kylian Mbappé, Aurélien Tchouaméni and a returning Antoine Griezmann, alongside the emergence of Désiré Doué and Warren Zaïre-Emery. “They’ve had the easiest qualifying campaign of the top sides and they look fresher for it,” Shearer said. “When Mbappé plays through the middle in a major tournament, France usually go deep.”
Sutton picked holders Argentina, even with Lionel Messi turning 39 the week before the final. “Lionel Andrés Messi has earned the right to be picked until he says otherwise,” Sutton said, pointing to Lautaro Martínez’s 14 goals in the Copa América cycle and the continuity of Lionel Scaloni’s staff. Richards and Brown-Finnis both went for Spain, who arrive as European champions after their Euro 2024 victory in Berlin. Lamine Yamal, who turns 19 a week into the group stage, is the youngest player on any of the pre-tournament shortlists. “Spain control matches in a way no one else does,” Richards said. “Rodri’s fit, Pedri’s fit, and Yamal is the best teenager I’ve seen since Wayne Rooney at Euro 2004.”
Brazil, under Carlo Ancelotti, were named by none of the five as outright winners but appeared on every shortlist as a semi-finalist. Germany, hosts of Euro 2024, were notably absent.
The dark horses: Morocco, Uruguay and a Saudi Arabian wildcard
Morocco’s run to the semi-finals in Qatar 2022 is the reference point every pundit returned to. Walid Regragui’s side qualified top of their CAF group with eight wins from eight, and Brown-Finnis tipped them to reach the last four again. “They’ve added Abde Ezzalzouli and Bilal El Khannouss to the spine that beat Spain and Portugal,” she said. “On grass, in heat, with a travelling support that turned Doha into Casablanca-on-the-Gulf, they’re nobody’s idea of an easy draw.”
Warnock named Uruguay, now under Marcelo Bielsa, pointing to Federico Valverde’s form at Real Madrid and the partnership of Darwin Núñez and Maximiliano Araújo. Sutton offered the most contrarian shout: Saudi Arabia, drawn in a group with Mexico, Norway and Ghana. “Roberto Mancini has had three years with this squad, they beat Argentina in Lusail four years ago, and they’ll have the closest thing to a home crowd among the Asian sides given the chartered travel.”
The panel also flagged the United States as a co-host with genuine knockout potential. Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun and Gio Reyna are joined by 19-year-old Cavan Sullivan, the Philadelphia Union midfielder who became MLS’s youngest debutant in 2024.
England and Scotland: a quarter-final ceiling and a group-stage education
The home nations divide opinion sharply. Three of the five pundits — Shearer, Richards and Warnock — see England reaching the semi-finals under Thomas Tuchel, who replaced Gareth Southgate after Euro 2024. Sutton and Brown-Finnis stop at the quarter-finals. The consensus concern is central midfield: Jude Bellingham’s hamstring problem at Real Madrid in April, and the absence of a settled partner for Declan Rice. “If Tuchel solves the No 8 problem, England win it,” Richards said. “If he doesn’t, it’s the quarters again.”
Scotland, returning to a World Cup for the first time in 28 years, were given no chance of progressing beyond the group by four of the five panellists. Steve Clarke’s side were drawn alongside Belgium, Japan and Tunisia in Group F, with matches in Toronto, Kansas City and Guadalajara. “Just getting there is the win,” Sutton said. “Anything else is a bonus, and a point off Belgium in Toronto would be the result of Clarke’s career.” Brown-Finnis was the lone dissenter, predicting Scotland to finish second in the group and lose to Argentina in the last 16. “Scott McTominay, John McGinn, Andy Robertson — that’s a knockout-round spine.”
The tournament’s verdict arrives in 38 days. The pundits’ record at Qatar 2022: none picked Argentina.
Sports journalist and editor at SportsPortal.net. Covers cricket, football, Formula 1, tennis, and basketball with a focus on how global sports connect with Pakistani audiences. Follows the PSL, Pakistan national cricket team, Premier League, and major international tournaments. Has reported on sports for digital audiences since 2021.
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